An AI is built in six layers, from chips up to agents, and most arguments about AI make more sense once you know which layer they are about.
- Silicon and power come first. Training occupies specialised chips for months, which makes AI a buildings-and-electricity problem as much as a software one.
- Data sets what a model can know. What goes in decides what can come out, and a growing share of what is available to train on was itself machine-generated.
- Pretraining is guessing the next part, at scale. The rules are not written by hand; they emerge from correction, and the result is a file of frozen numbers, the weights.
- Alignment shapes behaviour afterwards, and it runs on people. It is incomplete by admission, and much of it is human work whose conditions are rarely discussed.
- Products are wrapping; agents add action. Products on the same model mostly differ in their packaging, while agents give the model tools and a loop, so a mistake becomes an action.
It starts as sand. Purified into silicon, sliced into wafers, printed with circuitry at a scale measured in billionths of a metre, then packaged into the specialised processors that do one thing extraordinarily fast: multiply enormous grids of numbers.
A frontier training run occupies tens of thousands of these chips continuously for months. They are not general computers in any everyday sense — they are arithmetic engines, and everything above this layer is that arithmetic wearing a costume.
This layer also explains the energy question. Each chip generates heat that must be removed, which is why AI is a buildings-and-power-grid problem as much as a software one. The International Energy Agency projected global datacentre electricity demand more than doubling by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours — slightly more than Japan's total electricity consumption today — in its April 2025 Energy and AI report. The agency has since updated that central projection to about 950 TWh in 2030, roughly double the 485 TWh of 2025.Source: IEA, Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report), April 2025, read at source 17 Sep 2026 in the report PDF (iea.org itself refuses automated requests): “Data centre electricity consumption is set to more than double to around 945 TWh by 2030. This is slightly more than Japan's total electricity consumption today.” Carbon Brief renders the comparison as “equivalent to the current electricity demand of Japan”; the IEA's own wording is used here. The update was read at source 17 Sep 2026 in the IEA's April 2026 Key Questions on Energy and AI (PDF): “Our updated projections see electricity consumption from data centres roughly doubling from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030, accounting for around 3% of global electricity demand by that date.” The same report says the Base Case sees consumption “growing from around 415 TWh in 2024 to around 950 TWh in 2030”, and that data centres “accounted for 1.5% of global electricity consumption in 2025”.
SAND → WAFER → CHIPMONTHS OF CONTINUOUS RUNTrillions of words, images and lines of code — scraped from the open web, licensed from publishers, bought, and increasingly generated by other models. Then filtered: duplicates removed, low-quality pages dropped, some categories excluded entirely.
This layer decides what the finished system can possibly know, and it carries most of the field's unresolved fights: who owns the text, whether consent was given, what happens when models begin training on their own output. What goes in decides what can come out — and unlike the layers above it, this one cannot be fixed later.
And the quarry is changing composition. A growing share of what is available to scrape was itself machine-generated — roughly half of newly published articles, by the figures in the quarterly record.Graphite, “AI Now Writes as Many Online Articles as Humans”, May 2026, read at source 17 Sep 2026: “since Q1 2025 the percentage of primarily AI-generated articles has plateaued at roughly 50%”. A count of English-language articles in Common Crawl, not of everything a lab might train on. Research published in Nature in 2024 showed that models trained repeatedly on their own outputs degrade: rare cases vanish first, then variety collapses. In the paper's own terms, early model collapse is the model "losing information about the tails of the distribution", and late collapse is convergence "to a distribution that carries little resemblance to the original one, often with substantially reduced variance". The overall score is the wrong place to look for it: with a tenth of the real data retained, the authors measured "only minor degradation of performance" while the tails were going. One of the authors, Yarin Gal, put it as an AI echo chamber.
This is not a prediction of doom. Labs filter aggressively, license human-written corpora, and use generated data deliberately where it helps. But it does mean the economics of the open web are now a training-data question: if human pages stop being viable to produce, the quarry that every layer above depends on gets worse.Shumailov et al., "AI models collapse when trained on recursively generated data", Nature 631, 755–759 (2024); body read at source in the open-access copy at Edinburgh Research Explorer on 11 Sep 2026: "At first, the tails (low-probability events) begin to disappear". CORRECTED 11 Sep 2026 — this page previously said performance on common cases "can look fine or even improve while the tails rot away", and attributed to an author the line that the surprise is "how fast it starts and how elusive it is". Neither is in the paper: it reports that "Both training regimes lead to degraded performance in our models", and the author quote could not be traced to any source that could be opened. The Gal quote is from Oxford's Department of Computer Science: "Model collapse threatens to create an AI echo chamber." The economic and legal half — including the copyright rulings that now turn on how training data was obtained — on AI and the open web.
TRILLIONS OF TOKENSFILTERED · DEDUPLICATED · WEIGHEDINCREASINGLY SELF-REFERENTIALPROVENANCE NOW LEGALLY CONSEQUENTIALTo understand what a model can and cannot do, start with what it was trained on. Flaws in the data are hard to repair at any later layer, and the open web it draws on is changing.
Here is the whole mechanism, honestly: the system is shown a piece of text with the next part hidden, guesses what comes next, and has billions of internal numbers nudged slightly whenever it guesses wrong. Repeat for months.
No engineer writes the rules. Grammar, arithmetic, the shape of an argument, the conventions of a recipe — all of it emerges from correction at scale. Which is also why it is so hard to point to where a specific skill lives inside the finished model, and why testing it is genuinely hard rather than merely tedious.
The result is a set of frozen numbers — the weights. That file is the model. Everything you have ever seen an AI do came out of arithmetic performed on numbers that were settled during this stage and have not changed since.
PREDICT · CORRECT · REPEATNO RULES WRITTEN BY HANDA freshly pretrained model is capable and unusable: it will continue any text at all, helpfully or otherwise. Alignment is the work of shaping behaviour afterwards — people ranking outputs, written principles the model is trained against, red teams paid to make it fail, and evaluations run before anything ships.
Two honest caveats belong here. First, this shapes behaviour, not beliefs — the model has none. Second, it is demonstrably incomplete: people keep finding ways to talk models out of their guidelines, which is why alignment is an active research field rather than a solved checkbox.
The part that gets left out: this layer runs on people. Ranking outputs, writing demonstrations, labelling harmful material and probing for failures are human jobs, done at scale, frequently through outsourced contracts and often by workers in lower-income countries. Some of it involves sustained exposure to the worst material a model might be asked to reproduce.
It is worth naming for two reasons. Practically: the behaviour you experience as a model's "values" was substantially decided by the judgement of people whose names you will never see. Honestly: a technology routinely described as automating work is, at this layer, an employer of a workforce whose conditions are rarely discussed by the people describing it.
FEEDBACK · PRINCIPLES · RED TEAMSINCOMPLETE BY ADMISSIONHUMAN LABOUR, LARGELY UNSEENChat windows, APIs, copilots inside other software. Almost nothing here is the model itself — it is packaging: what the system is told before you type, how much of your conversation it can still see, which tools it may reach for, what it refuses.
Worth knowing when a product feels dramatically better or worse than another using the same underlying model: you are usually comparing the wrapping, not the mind. ChatGPT's launch invented nothing fundamental — the architecture was five years old. What changed was a text box anyone could type into.
SAME MODEL · DIFFERENT WRAPPINGWhen two AI products feel very different, check whether they use the same model. If they do, you are usually judging the packaging: the instructions, memory, tools and refusals around it.
Systems that do not merely answer but act: browse, write and run code, call other software, take multi-step tasks and pursue them. Structurally this is the same predictor from Layer 03, given tools and a loop.
The reason this layer gets its own name is that the failure modes change. A wrong answer is a wrong answer; a wrong action books the flight, sends the message, deletes the file. Everything unresolved in Layer 04 becomes more consequential here, which is precisely why this floor is still under inspection.
ANSWERS → ACTIONSFAILURE MODES CHANGEWhat holding the whole stack in view actually tells you
Most disagreements are layer confusion. "AI steals from artists" is a Layer 02 argument. "AI is dangerous" is usually Layer 04 or 06. "AI is overhyped" is often Layer 05. People argue past each other because they are standing on different floors of the same building.
The mechanism is simpler than the mystique, and stranger than the dismissal. It is prediction over enormous data — not a mind, not a database, not a search engine. And also: nobody fully knows why particular capabilities appear when they do, which should make both the true-believers and the it-is-just-autocomplete crowd slightly less certain.
Physical constraints are real constraints. Chips, electricity, cooling, water. Layer 01 is not a metaphor, and it is where a lot of the next decade's actual limits will be argued out.
Understanding how a thing is built is the opposite of being impressed by it, and the opposite of being frightened of it. This stack is an enormous engineering achievement resting on unresolved questions about consent, energy, and control. Both halves of that sentence are true, and anyone selling you only one half is selling something.
When an argument about AI goes nowhere, ask which layer each side is talking about. Chips, data, alignment and products raise different questions and need different evidence.