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What AI Actually Runs On: sand, power, and heat

Descend from silicon die to power grid: why GPUs, what memory bandwidth means, how a training run works, and the…

READ6 min
WORDS1,301
SECTIONS6
SOURCES1
TYPEEXPLAINER
CHECKED17 SEP 26
TL;DR — THE SHORT VERSION

AI runs on chips that do simple arithmetic in parallel, packed so densely that power, cooling and water have become the real limits.

  • GPUs won because of parallelism. A model's work is enormous grids of numbers multiplied at once, which is what graphics chips happen to be built for.
  • Moving the numbers is often the bottleneck. Fast memory sits right next to the chip, which is also why VRAM decides what runs on your own machine.
  • Density made cooling a core problem. Racks draw so much power that air can no longer carry the heat away, and liquid cooling has become standard.
  • One request is small; the total is not. A single prompt uses little electricity, but the combined buildout is a large new load on the grid, concentrated in a few regions.
  • These figures age. Each number on the page carries its source and date, and the page marks which ones were not re-checked in the latest cycle.

How an AI is built shows what a model is. This page descends through what it is made of: sand, gold, water, and roughly a nation's worth of electricity. Five levels down. Mind the heat.

LEVEL 1 · THE DIE

Why this chip and not your laptop's

Macro photograph of a glowing green GPU silicon die like a city seen from orbit, gold traces as streets
THE DIE — a city of arithmetic, photographed from orbit.

A CPU is a brilliant generalist: a few powerful cores doing complicated things one after another. A neural network needs the opposite — one simple thing (multiply, add) done billions of times simultaneously, because a model's "thinking" is just enormous grids of numbers being multiplied together. GPUs, born for videogame pixels, happen to be exactly that: thousands of small cores in parallel. That accident of history is why one company's green silicon became the picks-and-shovels of the entire gold rush.

The die's partner is memory bandwidth — how fast weights can be fed to those cores. Modern accelerators stack high-bandwidth memory physically next to the die because the bottleneck is usually not computing the numbers; it is carrying them. When the syllabus tells you VRAM decides what runs on your machine, this level is why.

TAKEAWAY

Memory decides what runs, not just chip speed. When a model will not fit or crawls on your machine, how fast weights can be fed to the chip is usually the reason.

LEVEL 2 · THE RACK

Density is the whole story

Accelerators are ganged eight-plus to a board, boards stacked into racks, racks laced together with interconnect fabric fast enough that thousands of chips can behave like one giant machine — a training run is exactly that: one calculation smeared across a warehouse for weeks. The consequence is heat density with no precedent in computing: the IEA measured AI rack power density rising 11-fold from 2020 to 2025, projecting a further fourfold jump by 2027 — at which point a single refrigerator-sized rack draws power equivalent to about 65 households. Air cannot carry that heat away anymore; liquid cooling — plates and pipes against the silicon — became standard equipment, not exotica.

TAKEAWAY

Treat heat as the constraint. Packing more chips together is what pushed cooling from air to liquid, so the physical limits of AI show up in the plumbing as much as in the silicon.

LEVEL 3 · THE HALL

Where the pour happens

The pour, in the site's one accent colour. Silicon starts as sand and ends as the floor everything else stands on.
Endless data center corridor of monolithic black server racks with emerald status lights, cold mist, one human for scale
THE HALL — one human, for scale. The hum is the sound of weights setting.

Gather the racks and you get the hall: a large data centre can consume as much electricity as 100,000 households — the IEA’s own phrasing — and the agency states that the largest currently under construction could consume as much as 2 million households. Training happens here (the weeks-long pour The Assembly describes), and then inference happens here forever after — every chat, every image, every agent, each sip small on its own: the IEA's 2026 indicative estimates, counting GPU electricity only, put a request to a large text model around 0.31 Wh, a moderate agentic task around 1.14 Wh, and the same agentic task with reasoning turned on near 50 Wh, while a disclosed median short text prompt measured 0.24 Wh and 0.26 ml of water (Google technical paper, 2025). Small sips; unimaginable frequency.IEA, Energy and AI, April 2025, read at source 17 Sep 2026: “A large data centre can consume as much electricity as 100 000 households. The largest currently under construction could consume as much as 2 million households.” · IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI, April 2026, read at source 17 Sep 2026: Figure 2.1 shows 0.31 Wh for a large mixture-of-experts text model, 1.14 Wh for an agentic task and 50 Wh for an agentic task with reasoning; its note: “Agentic estimates represent a moderate task profile of four to six sequential LLM calls”. This page previously labelled the 1.1 Wh bar a standard assistant request.

ENERGY PER REQUEST · WATT-HOURS
Three IEA indicative estimates (GPU electricity only) and one disclosed Google measurement, drawn to scale. Small sips, but not all the same size.
Agentic task with reasoning on · IEA indicative estimate~50 Wh
Agentic task, reasoning off · IEA indicative estimate1.14 Wh
Large text model request · IEA indicative estimate0.31 Wh
Median Gemini Apps text prompt · Google, 20250.24 Wh
Google, Measuring the environmental impact of delivering AI at Google Scale (Aug 2025), read at source 11 Sep 2026: “the median Gemini Apps text prompt uses 0.24 watt-hours (Wh) of energy, emits 0.03 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent (gCO2e), and consumes 0.26 milliliters of water” · IEA, "Key Questions on Energy and AI" (Apr 2026), read at source 17 Sep 2026, Figure 2.1, bar values 0.31 (large mixture-of-experts text model), 1.14 (agentic) and 50 (agentic with reasoning): “Only GPU electricity consumption is shown in this graph, as this is the metric for which measurement is most reliable.”
LEVEL 4 · WATER & HEAT

The part everyone forgets is thermodynamics

Industrial cooling towers venting steam at night behind a data center under green floodlights
EXHAUST — computation leaves as weather.

Every watt in becomes heat out; the only questions are how efficiently (the industry metric PUE — total facility power divided by computing power — with modern halls pushing toward 1.1) and what carries it away. Often: water, through evaporative cooling — which is why hyperscaler water disclosures rose sharply through 2024–25 and why closed-loop liquid designs, which cut direct water use dramatically at higher capital cost, are spreading. Cooling is now its own line on the world's bill: Gartner forecasts cooling electricity alone climbing 22.6% in 2026 to 195 TWh.Gartner forecast as reported by Data Centre Magazine, 15 Jun 2026, read at source 23 Sep 2026: “Data centre cooling infrastructure electricity consumption is forecast to jump by 22.6% this year, reaching a total of 195TWh.” IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI, April 2026, read at source 23 Sep 2026: best-in-class hyperscale facilities “now achieve power usage effectiveness (PUE) ratios of approximately 1.1 to 1.2”.

◈ VERIFICATION STATUS · 17 SEPTEMBER 2026

Read at source on 17 Sep 2026 in the IEA's own report PDFs: the IEA's projection of ~945 TWh of datacentre electricity demand by 2030 (April 2025 Energy and AI report; the agency has since updated its central projection to about 950 TWh, from 485 TWh in 2025), and the comparison that a large datacentre can consume as much electricity as 100,000 households, with the largest under construction reaching 2 million. The same day, the April 2026 IEA report was also read for rack power density, the 2025 growth rates and the per-request estimates. The Gartner cooling and server forecasts, the Lawrence Berkeley range and the regional shares were not re-checked in that cycle; on 23 Sep 2026 they were read at source (Gartner through trade coverage, because gartner.com refuses automated access) and are quoted under the numbers above.IEA, Energy and AI, April 2025, read at source 17 Sep 2026: “Data centre electricity consumption is set to more than double to around 945 TWh by 2030.” · IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI, April 2026, read at source 17 Sep 2026: “Our updated projections see electricity consumption from data centres roughly doubling from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030, accounting for around 3% of global electricity demand by that date.”

TAKEAWAY

Ask what carries the heat away. Every watt a data centre uses becomes heat, and where evaporative cooling carries it away, the cost is paid partly in water.

LEVEL 5 · THE GRID

The numbers, dated and sourced

+50%growth of AI-focused data-center electricity in 2025, against 17% for data centres overall. IEA, Apr 2026.
565 TWhglobal data-center electricity forecast for 2026, up 26% year-on-year; AI servers ≈ 31% of it. Gartner, Jun 2026.
~950 TWhprojected global data-center demand by 2030 — near 3% of world electricity. IEA base case.
6.7–12%share of US electricity that data centers could reach by 2028, from ~4.4% in 2023. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
26% · 21%share of electricity already consumed by data centers in Virginia and in Ireland respectively — concentration, not averages, is where strain lives. IEA / Carbon Brief, 2025.
2027the crossover year: AI-optimized servers projected to out-consume all conventional servers. Gartner, Jun 2026.

IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI, April 2026, read at source 23 Sep 2026: “The global electricity demand of data centres - the critical infrastructure for training and running AI models - grew by 17% in 2025”; “Electricity consumption from AI-focused data centres grew even faster, surging 50% in 2025.”; “roughly doubling from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030, accounting for around 3% of global electricity demand”. Gartner forecast as reported by Network World, 7 Jul 2026, read at source 23 Sep 2026 (gartner.com refuses automated access): “565 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2026, up 26% from 447 TWh in 2025”; “Gartner estimates AI-optimized server adoption will account for 31% of data center power consumption in 2026, and that by 2027 their power consumption will surpass that of conventional servers.” Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 15 Jan 2025, read at source 23 Sep 2026: “Data centers consumed about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023 and, depending upon how much the rest of the economy grows, are expected to consume between 6.7 and 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028.” Carbon Brief, 15 Sep 2025, read at source 23 Sep 2026: “In the US state of Virginia, these facilities already consume 26% of electricity”; in Ireland “around 21% of the nation’s electricity is used for data centres”. First-hand: until 23 Sep 2026 the first line also called the 50% “16× the pace of overall electricity demand”; no source for that ratio could be found, so it was replaced with the IEA’s own comparison.

Two honest framings, held together: an individual query costs less electricity than boiling water for tea — and the buildout in aggregate is the largest new load the grid has met in a generation, concentrated in a handful of regions whose bills and build-outs are already reshaped by it. Both sentences are true. Any page that gives you only one of them is selling something.

TAKEAWAY

Keep both scales in view. Use the per-request figure to judge your own use and the aggregate figure to judge the buildout; a source that offers only one is leaving something out.

Ascend

You have seen the body. How the model it runs is made is in how an AI is built; what it costs the internet is in the quarterly record; and whether it should live in these halls or on your desk is weighed, without sides, in Local or Cloud.

◈ WHERE THIS SITE STANDS — Infrastructure is not an accusation. These halls also fold proteins, forecast storms, and answer midnight questions. We are messengers: the numbers above are what building a new kind of mind physically costs, shown so people can weigh it with open eyes. Worry is not hostility.
SOURCES (each dated below): IEA, "Key Questions on Energy and AI" (Apr 2026), read at source 17 Sep 2026 in the report PDF (iea.org itself serves a bot-verification challenge): +17% data-center demand 2025, +50% AI-focused, ~950 TWh 2030 base case, rack density 11× 2020–25 & 4× by 2027 (≈65 households/rack), per-request 0.31 Wh / 1.14 Wh / ~50 Wh indicative GPU-only estimates (Figure 2.1) · IEA, Energy and AI (Apr 2025), read at source 17 Sep 2026: ~945 TWh 2030, a large data centre ≈100,000 households, the largest under construction ≈2 million · Gartner forecast (Jun 2026): 565 TWh 2026, AI servers 175 TWh & 31% share, cooling +22.6% to 195 TWh, 2027 crossover · LBNL: US 4.4% (2023) → 6.7–12% (2028) · Google, Measuring the environmental impact of delivering AI at Google Scale (Aug 2025), read at source 11 Sep 2026: “the median Gemini Apps text prompt uses 0.24 watt-hours (Wh) of energy, emits 0.03 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent (gCO2e), and consumes 0.26 milliliters of water” · Carbon Brief / IEA regional shares (Virginia 26%, Ireland ~21%) · Our World in Data synthesis (Jul 2026). Figures are point-in-time; this page was first measured in July 2026 and each source above carries the date it was last read.
WHAT THIS ISThe physical substrate: chips, halls, power.
THE POINTNobody out-thinks a power grid.
THE FACTA large datacentre can draw as much power as 100,000 homes.
READ: ENERGY AND WATER
◈ IF YOU ARE CITING THIS

Or check it yourself. How to check the figures here names the feed or document behind each recurring source, and what to expect when your number differs from ours.

Cite the original source, not this page. Every figure here names the organisation that issued it and the date it was published — those are the citations worth carrying. This page is a signpost, not a primary source.

If you need to reference the collation itself — the comparison, the framing, or a correction made here — the press page has the details. But if you are quoting a number, go to whoever measured it.